=========================  Projected city fiscal state based on 25% Reduced Growth  =========================


                Item                     2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015
------------------------------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

GENERAL FUND
  Total General Fund Revenues         $13,978,841  $16,126,410  $17,113,461  $17,966,793  $18,777,319  $19,222,097  $19,624,291  $19,442,255  $19,976,612
  Total General Fund Expenditures      $6,557,674  $13,975,724  $14,600,718  $14,456,507  $14,890,897  $15,228,336  $14,736,310  $15,013,333  $15,264,235
  General Fund Operating Surplus       $7,421,167   $2,150,666   $2,512,743   $3,510,286   $3,886,421   $3,993,762   $4,887,981   $4,428,921   $4,712,377

  Revenue Neutrality + Fire payments    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307    -$525,307

GF surplus/deficit after RN pmts       $6,895,860   $1,625,359   $1,987,436   $2,984,979   $3,361,114   $3,468,455   $4,362,674   $3,903,614   $4,187,070
General Fund Balance                   $8,142,966   $9,768,325  $11,755,761  $14,740,740  $18,101,854  $21,570,309  $25,932,983  $29,836,597  $34,023,667

ROAD MAINTENANCE FUND
    Gasoline sales tax                 $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,885,677   $1,598,782   $1,640,277
    Road Fund property tax             $1,517,125   $1,654,588   $1,792,457   $1,940,002   $2,078,645   $2,154,593   $2,240,371   $2,388,569   $2,454,977
  Total Road Fund Revenues             $3,402,802   $3,540,265   $3,678,134   $3,825,679   $3,964,322   $4,040,270   $4,126,048   $3,987,351   $4,095,254
  Total Road Fund expenses             $1,486,400   $1,588,732   $1,714,836   $1,817,168   $1,876,713   $1,960,029   $2,019,575   $2,079,120   $2,138,666
  Total Road Fund Operating Surplus    $1,916,402   $1,951,533   $1,963,298   $2,008,511   $2,087,609   $2,080,241   $2,106,473   $1,908,231   $1,956,588

  Revenue Neutrality payments           -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300    -$751,300

Rd Fnd surplus/deficit after RN pmts   $1,165,102   $1,200,233   $1,211,998   $1,257,211   $1,336,309   $1,328,941   $1,355,173   $1,156,931   $1,205,288
Road Fund Balance                      $1,331,639   $2,531,872   $3,743,870   $5,001,081   $6,337,390   $7,666,331   $9,021,504  $10,178,435  $11,383,723

OTHER RESTRICTED FUND
  Revenue; payments = revenue            $755,283   $4,046,440   $4,612,965   $4,396,423   $3,800,696   $4,287,948   $3,992,221   $4,071,494   $4,150,767


ALL FUNDS OPERATING SURPLUS            $8,060,962   $2,825,592   $3,199,434   $4,242,190   $4,697,423   $4,797,396   $5,717,847   $5,060,545   $5,392,358
    (DEFICIT if negative)
ALL FUNDS BALANCE                      $9,474,605  $12,300,197  $15,499,631  $19,741,821  $24,439,244  $29,236,640  $34,954,487  $40,015,032  $45,407,390


Notes
-----

This table corresponds to table E-3 in the 2005 Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA)
for El Dorado Hills incorporation. It forecasts fiscal results that a city of El Dorado Hills
would have experienced if Measure P had passed under the CFA sensitivity analysis conditions
of historic Vehicle License Fee revenue and 25% reduced growth, relative to growth rates
measured through the end of FY 2004.

Baseline growth was forecast by the CFA to be The CFA forecast housing growth at 675 housing
units per year over the span of the forecast. That CFA forecast used a two-step approximation,
with a rate of 900 units in earlier years and 450 units in later years. This was based on
actual housing construction rates in years through the end of FY 2004. Corresponding
projections for 25% reduced growth are 506 units per year overall, 675 per year in early years,
and 337.5 in later years.

A variation of historic VLF funding was restored by passage of AB 1602 in 2006. The variation
is substantially equivalent to the historic statute's provisions but was made easier to analyze
by substituting a formula for additional revenue awarded to newly incorporated cities instead
of deriving this amount from a proxy population based on voter registration. This computer run
uses the CFA data instead of recalculating from data not presented directly in CFA tables.
Differences relative to actual revenue would be small and would decrease to zero difference
at the end of FY 2011.

The only update to numeric data in this set of data that departs from a CFA assumption is
Road Fund revenue from the share of fuel sales taxes allocated by the state to incorporated
cities. This revenue is approximately proportional to retail gasoline prices, and those
prices have risen very substantially since the end of FY 2004. The update assumes that
prices in FY 2007 were 60% higher than in FY 2004. This is mildly conservative, the actual
increase probably was about 65%. Both the CFA's original forecast and this update are based
on having no additional change in retail gasoline prices. That assumption probably is
extremely conservative.

Results in this table were produced by a computer application using SQL to operate on
a database. Application accuracy was checked against the original CFA data by comparing
results from a run which did not update Road Fund revenue.