Summary comparison of fiscal projections
for El Dorado Hills incorporation as a city
at a range of growth rates
Concise overall summary:
If El Dorado Hills had incorporated in 2006 the city would
have run an overall budget surplus at any level of growth, including
zero growth. At zero growth the General Fund would experience small
deficits in several years, small surpluses in others. The largest
surpluses in proportion to revenues are in the Road Fund.
All Funds operating surplus (positive) or deficit (negative):
| Growth Rate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nominal* |
$8,790,560
|
$3,504,455
|
$4,022,223
|
$5,169,506
|
$5,902,362 |
$6,032,422
|
$7,051,253
|
$6,596,606
|
$7,070,044
|
| 25% reduced growth |
$8,060,962
|
$2,825,592
|
$3,199,434
|
$4,242,190
|
$4,697,423
|
$4,797,396
|
$5,717,847
|
$5,060,545
|
$5,392,358
|
| 50% reduced growth |
$7,331,364
|
$2,146,729
|
$2,376,645
|
$3,314,874
|
$3,492,484
|
$3,562,370
|
$4,384,441
|
$3,524,484
|
$3,714,672
|
| 75% reduced growth |
$6,601,766
|
$1,467,866
|
$1,553,856
|
$2,387,558
|
$2,287,545
|
$2,327,344
|
$3,051,035
|
$1,988,423
|
$2,036,986
|
| Zero growth |
$5,872,168
|
$789,003
|
$731,067
|
$1,460,242
|
$1,082,606
|
$1,092,318
|
$1,717,629
|
$452,362
|
$359,300
|
All Funds Balance:
| Growth Rate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nominal* |
$10,204,272
|
$13,708,727
|
$17,730,950
|
$22,900,456
|
$28,802,818
|
$34,835,240
|
$41,886,493
|
$48,483,099
|
$55,553,143
|
| 25% reduced growth |
$9,474,605
|
$12,300,197
|
$15,499,631
|
$19,741,821
|
$24,439,244
|
$29,236,640
|
$34,954,487
|
$40,015,032
|
$45,407,390
|
| 50% reduced growth |
$8,744,938
|
$10,891,667
|
$13,268,312
|
$16,583,186
|
$20,075,670
|
$23,638,040
|
$28,022,481
|
$31,546,965
|
$35,261,637
|
| 75% reduced growth |
$8,015,271
|
$9,483,137
|
$11,036,993
|
$13,424,551
|
$15,712,096
|
$18,039,440
|
$21,090,475
|
$23,078,898
|
$25,115,884
|
| Zero growth |
$7,285,604
|
$8,074,607
|
$8,805,674
|
$10,265,916
|
$11,348,522
|
$12,440,840
|
$14,158,469
|
$14,610,831
|
$14,970,131
|
See separate detail statements for individual growth rates for
additional details. Results for 50% reduced growth are highlighted as
those best matching El Dorado County's updated projections as of
February, 2008.
These are Citizens Alliance extrapolations from the 2005 Comprehensive
Fiscal Analysis (CFA), accounting for restoration of Vehicle License
Fee funding through Assembly Bill 1602 (enacted in 2006) and increased
Road Fund fuel sales tax revenue due to increased retail prices of
gasoline. All other assumptions are as given in the CFA. Fuel tax revenues to the state are:
* The nominal growth rate is the rate identified by the 2005 CFA as the
expected rate based on statistics for recent years' actual growth, from
statistics through then end of FY 2004. This includes housing growth
and business growth. Housing growth rates have dropped substantially;
in February, 2008 the County adopted a projection that would correspond
to 56% reduced housing growth. Business growth is continuing, so
far apparently without a corresponding level of impact. Property values
and sales of existing homes remain relatively strong. Statistics from
EDCAR (the El Dorado County Association of Realtors) at the end of 2007
showed about a 5% decline in sales activity from the housing
market's peak, with sales so far having dropped back only to the level
seen in April/May 2005.
