Summary comparison of fiscal projections
for El Dorado Hills incorporation as a city
at a range of growth rates
(not accounting for post-2004 increase in fuel sales tax revenue)

Concise overall summary:
If El Dorado Hills had incorporated in 2006 the city would have run an overall budget surplus at any level of growth, including zero growth.

Zero growth (100% reduced growth) produces worst case results, with the General Fund balance marginal. In various years it would have run deficits up to 2% of revenue and surpluses up to 8.5% of revenue. The Road Fund easily stays in surplus even after payment of $ 3/4 million per year in revenue neutrality payments to the County.  Actual Road Fund surpluses would be much larger, this analysis case does not account for the rapid rise of fuel sales tax revenues since 2004.

All Funds operating surplus (positive) or deficit (negative):

Growth Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nominal* $8,083,431
 $2,797,326
 $3,315,094
 $4,462,377
 $5,195,233 $5,325,293
 $6,344,124
 $5,997,063
 $6,454,940
25% reduced growth $7,300,665
 $2,093,458
 $2,501,388
 $3,572,335
 $4,045,085
 $4,168,542
 $5,106,559
 $4,444,001
 $4,780,645
50% reduced growth $6,517,899
 $1,389,590
 $1,687,682
 $2,682,293
 $2,894,937
 $3,011,791
 $3,868,994
 $2,890,939
 $3,106,350
75% reduced growth $5,735,133
 $685,722
 $873,976
 $1,792,251
 $1,744,789
 $1,855,040
 $2,631,429
 $1,337,877
 $1,432,055
Zero growth $4,952,367
  -$18,146
 $60,270
 $902,209
 $594,641
 $698,289
 $1,393,864
 -$215,185
 -$242,240

All Funds Balance:

Growth Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nominal* $9,497,074
 $12,294,400
 $15,609,494
 $20,071,871
 $25,267,104
 $30,592,397
 $36,936,521
 $42,933,584
 $49,388,524
25% reduced growth $8,714,308
 $10,807,766
 $13,309,154
 $16,881,489
 $20,926,574
 $25,095,116
 $30,201,675
 $34,645,676
 $39,426,321
50% reduced growth $7,931,473
 $9,321,063
 $11,008,745
 $13,691,038
 $16,585,975
 $19,597,766
 $23,466,760
 $26,357,699
 $29,464,049
75% reduced growth $7,148,638
 $7,834,360
 $8,708,336
 $10,500,587
 $12,245,376
 $14,100,416
 $16,731,845
 $18,069,722
 $19,501,777
Zero growth $6,365,803
 $6,347,657
 $6,407,927
 $7,310,136
 $7,904,777
 $8,603,066
 $3,187,462
 $1,886,575
 $1,764,354

Detail for all growth alternatives in a single text file

* The nominal growth rate is the rate identified by the 2005 Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA) as the expected rate based on actual recent years' actual growth, from statistics through then end of FY 2004.

Links in the left column go to separate detail results for each growth rate.  In February 2008 El Dorado County reduced its own fiscal projections to the level of 56% reduced growth. It is reasonable to expect growth to move toward higher levels again within the time frame of this study (through 2015), with buildout of Blackstone and other developments south of US 50 becoming the largest growth factor. This study does not attempt to predict the timing and rate of such a change, its reduced-growth projections apply throughout the years analyzed in the 2005 incorporation Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA).

This set of results recognizes one of two factors which were either indefinite or unanticipated in the 2005 CFA: