Summary comparison of fiscal projections
for El Dorado Hills incorporation as a city
at a range of growth rates
(accounting for post-2004 increase in fuel sales tax revenue)
Concise overall summary:
If El Dorado Hills had incorporated in 2006 the city would
have run an overall budget surplus at any level of growth, including
zero growth. At zero growth the General Fund balance is marginal. In
various years it would have run deficits up to 2% of revenue and
surpluses up to 8.5% of revenue. Road Fund surpluses Road Fund
surpluses would have been about 40% of revenue (after revenue
neutrality payments to the County), about double the amount of Road
Fund expenditures.
All Funds operating surplus (positive) or deficit (negative):
| Growth Rate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nominal* |
$9,214,837
|
$3,928,732
|
$4,446,500
|
$5,593,783
|
$6,326,639 |
$6,456,699
|
$7,475,530
|
$6,956,332
|
$7,439,106
|
| 25% reduced growth |
$8,432,071
|
$3,224,864
|
$3,632,794
|
$4,703,741
|
$5,176,491
|
$5,299,958
|
$6,237,965
|
$5,403,270
|
$5,764,811
|
| 50% reduced growth |
$7,649,305
|
$2,520,996
|
$2,819,088
|
$3,813,699
|
$4,026,343
|
$4,143,217
|
$5,000,400
|
$3,850,208
|
$4,090,516
|
| 75% reduced growth |
$6,866,539
|
$1,817,128
|
$2,005,382
|
$2,923,657
|
$2,876,195
|
$2,986,476
|
$3,762,835
|
$2,297,146
|
$2,416,221
|
| Zero growth |
$6,083,773
|
$1,113,260
|
$1,191,676
|
$2,033,615
|
$1,726,047
|
$1,829,735
|
$2,525,270
|
$744,084
|
$741,926
|
All Funds Balance:
| Growth Rate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nominal* |
$10,628,549
|
$14,557,281
|
$19,003,781
|
$24,597,564
|
$30,924,203
|
$37,380,902
|
$44,856,433
|
$51,812,765
|
$59,251,871
|
| 25% reduced growth |
$9,845,714
|
$13,070,578
|
$16,703,372
|
$21,407,113
|
$26,583,604
|
$31,883,562
|
$38,121,528
|
$43,524,798
|
$49,289,609
|
| 50% reduced growth |
$9,062,879
|
$11,583,875
|
$14,402,963
|
$18,216,662
|
$22,243,005
|
$26,386,222
|
$31,386,623
|
$35,236,831
|
$39,327,347
|
| 75% reduced growth |
$8,280,044
|
$10,097,172
|
$12,102,554
|
$15,026,211
|
$17,902,406
|
$20,888,882
|
$24,651,718
|
$26,948,864
|
$29,365,085
|
| Zero growth |
$7,497,209
|
$8,610,469
|
$9,802,145
|
$11,835,760
|
$13,561,807
|
$15,391,542
|
$11,107,345
|
$10,765,727
|
$11,627,672
|
Detail for all growth alternatives in a single text file
* The nominal growth rate is the rate identified by the 2005 Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA) as the
expected rate based on actual recent years' actual growth, from
statistics through then end of FY 2004.
Links in the left column go to separate detail results for each growth
rate. In February 2008 El Dorado County reduced its own fiscal
projections to the level of 56% reduced growth. It is reasonable to
expect growth to move toward higher levels again within the time frame
of this study (through 2015), with buildout of Blackstone and other
developments south of US 50 becoming the largest growth factor. This
study does not attempt to predict the timing and rate of such a change,
its reduced-growth projections apply throughout the years analyzed in
the 2005 incorporation Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA).
This set of results recognizes two factors which were either indefinite or unanticipated in the 2005 CFA:
- Assembly Bill 1602 was enacted in 2006. This corrected a mistake
in a previously-adopted bill, restoring historic levels of Vehicle
License Fee in-lieu revenues to cities incorporated between August 5,
2004 and July 1, 2009. This had been anticipated in the CFA and
was accounted for in its sensitivity studies. The first-year difference
would have been to increase city revenues by $3.2 million.
- California's fuel sales tax revenues have approximately doubled since the FY 2004 data used in the CFA.
This component of city Road Fund annual revenues would have
approximately doubled , the increase would have been $1.1 million per
year.