Summary of EDH incorporation growth sensitivity, from CFA data plus adjustment for gas sales tax

Summary comparison of fiscal projections
for El Dorado Hills incorporation as a city
at a range of growth rates
(accounting for post-2004 increase in fuel sales tax revenue)

Concise overall summary:
If El Dorado Hills had incorporated in 2006 the city would have run an overall budget surplus at any level of growth, including zero growth. At zero growth the General Fund balance is marginal. In various years it would have run deficits up to 2% of revenue and surpluses up to 8.5% of revenue. Road Fund surpluses Road Fund surpluses would have been about 40% of revenue (after revenue neutrality payments to the County), about double the amount of Road Fund expenditures.

All Funds operating surplus (positive) or deficit (negative):

Growth Rate	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015

Nominal*	xx0_07	xx0_08	xx0_09	xx0_10	xx0_11	xx0_12	xx0_13	xx0_14	xx0_15
25% reduced growth	xx25_07	xx25_08	xx25_09	xx25_10	xx25_11	xx25_12	xx25_13	xx25_14	xx25_15
50% reduced growth	xx50_07	xx50_08	xx50_09	xx50_10	xx50_11	xx50_12	xx50_13	xx50_14	xx50_15
75% reduced growth	xx75_07	xx75_08	xx75_09	xx75_10	xx75_11	xx75_12	xx75_13	xx75_14	xx75_15
Zero growth	xx100_07	xx100_08	xx100_09	xx100_10	xx100_11	xx100_12	xx100_13	xx100_14	xx100_15

All Funds Balance:

Growth Rate	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015

Nominal*	yy0_07	yy0_08	yy0_09	yy0_10	yy0_11	yy0_12	yy0_13	yy0_14	yy0_15
25% reduced growth	yy25_07	yy25_08	yy25_09	yy25_10	yy25_11	yy25_12	yy25_13	yy25_14	yy25_15
50% reduced growth	yy50_07	yy50_08	yy50_09	yy50_10	yy50_11	yy50_12	yy50_13	yy50_14	yy50_15
75% reduced growth	yy75_07	yy75_08	yy75_09	yy75_10	yy75_11	yy75_12	yy75_13	yy75_14	yy75_15
Zero growth	yy100_07	yy100_08	yy100_09	yy100_10	yy100_11	yy100_12	yy100_13	yy100_14	yy100_15

Detail for all growth alternatives in a single text file

* The nominal growth rate is the rate identified by the 2005 Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA) as the expected rate based on actual recent years' actual growth, from statistics through then end of FY 2004.

Links in the left column go to separate detail results for each growth rate. In February 2008 El Dorado County reduced its own fiscal projections to the level of 56% reduced growth. It is reasonable to expect growth to move toward higher levels again within the time frame of this study (through 2015), with buildout of Blackstone and other developments south of US 50 becoming the largest growth factor. This study does not attempt to predict the timing and rate of such a change, its reduced-growth projections apply throughout the years analyzed in the 2005 incorporation Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (CFA).

This set of results recognizes two factors which were either indefinite or unanticipated in the 2005 CFA:

Assembly Bill 1602 was enacted in 2006. This corrected a mistake in a previously-adopted bill, restoring historic levels of Vehicle License Fee in-lieu revenues to cities incorporated between August 5, 2004 and July 1, 2009. This had been anticipated in the CFA and was accounted for in its sensitivity studies. The first-year difference would have been to increase city revenues by $3.2 million.
California's fuel sales tax revenues have approximately doubled since the FY 2004 data used in the CFA. This component of city Road Fund annual revenues would have approximately doubled , the increase would have been $1.1 million per year.