General law enforcement

General law enforcement in El Dorado Hills

Position paper paper #07-07 of the El Dorado Hills Citizens Alliance
Initial draft copy, 2/25/2007

Summary

It is reasonable to predict that El Dorado Hills will have a significantly increasing needs for general law enforcement as its growth continues. The County Sheriff probably needs to increase staffing devoted to EDH at a faster rate than currently planned.

Relevant circumstances:

The CFA for the 2005 EDH incorporation project reported a level of service in EDH (Beat 21) equivalent to about 0.4 sworn officers per thousand population. This is about 1/3 of the level simultaneously reported for police in the adjacent City of Folsom.
Our most recent check of Elk Grove police staffing corresponds to 0.93 sworn officers per 1,000 population, more than double the CFA findings for EDH.
The Sacramento Bee reported a history of significantly increased violent crime accompanying growth in Elk Grove. (2/10/2007, "Elk Grove sees a bumper crop of new homes and schools -- and crime") The article cited violent crime reports having tripled between 2000 and 2006, with the crime rate per 1,000 residents increasing by about 30%.
The Sheriff's office has reported plans to increase staffing levels by about 1 sworn officer per year for EDH (Beat 21).
The Sheriff's office has reported that a long lead time, up to two years, is necessary to fully train newly recruited officers.

In seeking a cause for Elk Grove's increase in crime the Bee said "... most put the blame on poor planning, especially by the county, that attracted waves of people without ensuring good jobs in town, adequate youth services for latchkey teens or an appropriate police presence for the city."

To avoid the problem of insufficient police staffing reported for Elk Grove it appears that the Sheriff's Office should increase EDH staffing at a higher rate, to anticipate need for urban staffing ratios. One officer added in calendar year 2006 would have corresponded to a ratio of about 0.75 per 1,000 new population because of that year's significantly lower growth in new housing. Considering growth rates seen in the prior years and start of sales in Blackstone later this year, it is reasonable to forecast a return to about 3 times as much annual growth by 2008.

A reasonable annual staffing increase to meet EDH needs in the immediate future probably would be in the range of 3 to 5 officers per year.

Part of the Sheriff's challenge for supporting EDH as it grows will be to shift operational modes toward keeping patrol on duty in different parts of the community instead of dispatching from a central office or substation in response to calls. Without such patrol positioning response time will be problematic to answer crime-in-progress calls.

As Blackstone, Carson Creek, and the Business Park build out the north/south extent of EDH will reach about 9-10 miles. East/west extent of EDH is already about 5 miles on Green Valley Road and will reach a generally similar extent south of US 50 when Marble Valley builds out. Road access to most points within EDH is hindered by low connectivitiy in the EDH surface street network and scarcity of arterials. Positioning of the planned EDH Substation on Bass Lake Road, on or near the eastern boundary of EDH, will place most of EDH out of range for rapid response for dispatch from the substation.